How Accurate is Winter Forecast 2009-2010?
Farmers’ Almanac Keeps its Secrets but Maintains Accuracy Claim
Oct 1, 2009
Calling it a “sandwich effect,” the Farmers’ Almanac is forecasting a colder-than-normal winter for three-quarters of the United States, with both coasts expecting average temperatures.
In terms of snow and the dreaded wintry mix of ice, snow and freezing rain, only the Central and Southern Plains are expecting above-average amounts of precipitation. The Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and Southwest are expected to experience drier-than-normal conditions. The rest of the land mass should have average amounts of winter precipitation.
Blizzards are also in store. The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states are warned to brace for a major snowfall – maybe a blizzard for New England – in mid-February.
The Forecasting Formula
The Farmers’ Almanac has earned its name and reputation by making accurate predictions, so it will not share its proprietary weather forecasting formula. “Since 1818, this carefully guarded formula has been passed along from calculator to calculator and has never been revealed,” states its website.
The original weather calculator was David Young, who first published the Farmer’s Almanac in 1818. Ever since, Almanac weather calculators have based their predictions on Young's list of contributing factors, which includes sunspots, moon phases, and other astronomical and atmospheric conditions.
Nature Study Used to Predict Weather
It also takes into consideration nature’s observable clues. According to weather folklore, expect a harsh winter if:
- Onion skins or corn husks are very thick.
- Woodpeckers share a tree.
- Spiders spin larger than usual webs.
- An over-abundance of acorns is produced.
- A small rust/orange band appears on a wooly worm caterpillar.
- Trees are laden with green leaves late in the fall.
- Hickory nuts have heavy shells.
- Tree bark is heaviest on the north side of the tree.
- Crickets are in the chimney.
- Hoot owls call late into the fall.
- Raccoons have thick tails and bright bands.
- Squirrels gather nuts early in the year.
- Halos/rings are seen frequently around the sun or moon.
- Heavy and numerous fogs appeared in August.
Despite its claim of 80-85% accuracy over the years, the Farmers’ Almanac yet warns that weather predicting is an inexact science. The Almanac’s success may be attributed to its practice of making weather pattern generalizations for large geographic regions rather than specific predictions. For short-term weather forecasts, the Almanac recommends using local weather sources.
 |
 |
