Weather Predictions by Animals
Using Animal Behavoir in Forecasting: The Case of Groundhog Day
Humans have used animal behavior to predict weather and storms for centuries. Today some still rely on Groundhog Day predictions for prolonged winter or early spring.
Using Animals to Predict the Weather
Humans have used animals and witnessed animal behavior to predict the weather throughout history, especially before there was science. From cats to frogs to birds and horses, watching for strange or odd animal behavior has helped some predict weather conditions or approaching storms. The most popular weather predicting animal could be the groundhog.
Groundhog Day - February 2
The tradition of predicting whether there will be six more weeks of wintry weather or calm spring-like weather, started when German settlers or the Pennsylvania Dutch began celebrating Candlemas Day in America. During Candlemas Day priests handed out candles to signify light during the darkest time of the year. The celebration came during the mid-point between the winter solstice and the spring equinox. If there was fair weather at this time, it meant the next six weeks of winter would be cold and stormy.
The first record of using a groundhog to predict the weather came in February of 1841. The groundhog or woodchuck was used, because during this time of year the animals are waking up from hibernation. The groundhog will go into hibernation for 3 to 5 months. Groundhog Day was officially recognized in Pennsylvania on February 2, 1886 when the groundhog became the symbol of Candlemas Day in America.
Punxsutawney Phil
Today, Groundhog Day is celebrated across the nation, as people wait to hear if there will be six more weeks of cold, dark winter or an early spring. The groundhog is named "Punxsutawney Phil" and he is known as the "Weather Prophet Extraordinary". Punxsutawney Pennsylvania is known as the "Weather Capital of the World." During the Groundhog Day celebration, Punxsutawney Phil lives at "Gobbler's Knob" in a burrow. Because of the popularity of the 1993 movie "Groundhog Day" starring Bill Murray and Andie MacDowell, there has been an increase in the number of people who visit Punxsutawney on February 2nd each year.
Overall, the groundhog has seen his shadow about ninety percent of the time, since 1886, according to Stormfax.com.
- Shadow - 96
- No Shadow - 15
- No record - 9
Canada's Wiarton Willie
Canada has its own version of Punxsutawney Phil, created by the media in 1956. Wiarton Willie is a unique groundhog: an albino. He resides in Wiarton, Ontario. Wiarton Willie's prediction records seem to differ somewhat from his more southern counterpart.
- Shadow - 18
- No Shadow - 24
- No record - 10
Although the groundhog has only been about 39 percent accurate in his past predictions, the celebration is amusing. Make sure to tune into your local station on February 2nd, to see what Punxsutawney Phil predicts for the winter. He is pulled out of his burrow at 7:25 am. In Canada, Wiarton Willie will make his prediction at 8:07 am.
