El Nino Modoki a Climatic Hybrid for 2009-2010
Winter Weather Forecast Predicts Hurricanes, Rain, and Flooding
Sep 25, 2009
With the last El Nino occurring in 2006, scientists predict the next El Nino will occur this winter and extend from 2009 to 2010. While El Nino can bring rain to the Southwest US and a mild winter to the Northwest US, this year's El Nino Modoki hybrid may challenge preconceived notions.
Past El Ninos are characterized by warming of the Eastern Pacific waters, however the current forecast depicts ocean warming in the Central Pacific. This warming shift and uncharacteristic El Nino behavior suggests a greater likelihood for Atlantic hurricanes normally abated by former Eastern Pacific forming El Ninos.
El Nino (ENSO) Weather Cause & Effects
El Nino, also known as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is the movement of warm ocean waters from the western to eastern Pacific. The change in ocean water temperature creates a climate change which causes more rain in the southern US while creating milder winters in the northern US.
The change in climate caused by El Nino can have a drastic global impact. Strength and duration of El Nino effects vary due to the levels of ocean warming and time of year. With heavier rain concentration in South America, past years have witnessed drought in Indonesia.
El Nino occurs on average every two to five years. Most recently, El Ninos occurred in 1986-87, 1991-92, 1993, 1994, and 1997-98. The period between 1990-94 represents an uncharacteristic period where the weather condition returned in rapid succession. The last El Nino occurred in 2006.
2009-2010 Weather Forecast Predicts El Nino
On July 9th,2009, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) announced the arrival of El Nino in its statement, "El Nino Arrives; Expected to Persist Through Winter 2009-10". Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator stated, “Advanced climate science allows us to alert industries, governments and emergency managers about the weather conditions El Nino may bring so these can be factored into decision-making and ultimately protect life, property and the economy."
The declaration though doesn't necessarily mean it will be good or bad, only that the El Nino is currently forming. Earlier this year, NOAA announced its ability to more quickly and readily forecast El Nino changes.
Depending on the amount of ocean warming and time of the year, the impact of El Nino can have both positive and negative consequences. El Nino can bring much-needed rain to the arid Southwest US while helping to abate Atlantic hurricanes. On the destructive end, El Nino can bring powerful storms causing flooding and mudslides.
Research Forecasts Atlantic Hurricanes with Greater Landfalls Due to El Nino Modoki
Science Daily reported in a July 3, 2009 article entitled, "New Type of El Nino Could Mean More Hurricanes Make Landfall," on a Georgia Tech climatic study naming this year's weather pattern as El Nino Modoki. When translated from Japanese the name means "same but different," as this new type of El Nino may bring uncharacteristic behavior.
While typical El Ninos are indicated by warming ocean waters in the Eastern Pacific, El Nino Modoki is the warming of ocean waters in the Central Pacific. Warmer water in the Central Pacific indicates greater potential for hurricanes. At this time, the exact cause for the change is not yet known and could possibly be a natural variation.
The article further discusses climatic study findings in which Peter Webster, professor at Georgia Tech's School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, states, "Normally, El Nino results in diminished hurricanes in the Atlantic, but this new type is resulting in a greater number of hurricanes with greater frequency and more potential to make landfall."
2009-2010 El Nino Modoki Forecast Suggests New El Nino Hybrid
This winter looks to usher in a new breed of El Nino which may bring with it an increase in Atlantic hurricanes. The El Nino Modoki shift in warming ocean waters in the Central Pacific instead of Eastern Pacific suggests the greater number of Atlantic hurricanes may also cause a greater number of them to make landfall.
As new data come in, NOAA will release more information on the El Nino forecast and impact on global climate changes. NOAA provides detailed information, charts, and forecasts on its El Nino theme page.
For additional reading, the following may be of interest:
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